Alcoa reports Thursday: the numbers to know before AA earnings

Alcoa (AA) reports results for its quarter ending September 2026 after the close on Thursday, 15 October. The consensus forecast is earnings of $1.65 a share, based on 5 analyst estimates compiled by Zacks and published by Nasdaq.

Shares closed at $42.20 on Friday, 9 October, down 1.47% on the day, for a market value of about $11.30B according to Nasdaq. The stock is down 20.6% so far in 2026, and sits 49.6% below its 52-week closing high of $83.79 from 2 June.

What the last report showed

In its most recent quarterly report (a 10-Q for the period ended 30 June 2026, filed 30 July), Alcoa reported revenue of $4.0B, up 31.4% from $3.0B a year earlier and 24.2% above the previous quarter's $3.2B. Net income was $407.0M, up from $164.0M. Diluted earnings per share came to $1.53 against $0.62 a year before.

The earnings track record

Alcoa has topped the consensus EPS estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters, according to Nasdaq's earnings-surprise data. (These EPS figures are on the adjusted basis Zacks tracks, which can differ from the GAAP diluted EPS in the SEC filing.) Most recently, for the quarter ending June 2026, it reported $2.12 a share against a $2.33 forecast, a -9.0% surprise.

Measured from the close before each report date to the close of the next session after it, the shares moved an average of 6.7% (in either direction) around the last 4 releases. The biggest swing was -9.5% around the report dated 16 July 2026.

What the forecast implies

The $1.65 consensus sits 22.2% below the $2.12 Alcoa reported for the previous quarter.