🇬🇧 UK

Should you fix your energy tariff or stay variable?

Looking for US rules? → US money answers

UKPublished 6 October 2026 · Written by BuyMeWhiskey Editorial Team · How we check facts

There is no universal winner between fixed and standard variable tariffs. Compare unit rates and standing charges with the price cap, check any exit fee and fix length, and decide whether price certainty is worth paying for expected price movements.

Next question: What happens when your energy supplier is taken over or fails? →

Compare your supplier's actual unit rates, standing charges, annual use and exit fee against Ofgem's current price-cap rates before choosing a fix.

Compare and switch energy tariffs

Fixed versus standard variable: the basic difference

A standard variable or default tariff is covered by Ofgem's price cap. A fixed tariff is not protected by the price cap in the same way because the supplier has agreed your unit rates and standing charges for a set period. That is why a fixed quote can sit above or below the current cap.

From 1 October to 31 December 2026, Ofgem's cap is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit in England, Scotland and Wales. That is an illustrative benchmark based on typical usage, not a ceiling on the total amount a household can spend: your actual bill depends on consumption, region, meter and payment method.

The current Ofgem rates

For Direct Debit customers under the October-December 2026 price cap, Ofgem's average rates are 26.32p per kWh for electricity and 7.97p per kWh for gas. Average standing charges are 54.83p per day for electricity and 29.68p per day for gas. Gas includes 5% VAT in those figures; electricity is shown without VAT during the temporary period from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.

These rates vary by region and payment method, so use your own regional figures when comparing a quote. A fixed deal should be assessed from the actual unit rates and standing charges, not from the headline monthly direct debit amount alone.

Compare the annual cost, not just the monthly payment

The fastest way to compare a tariff is to use your recent annual kWh consumption. Multiply electricity usage by the electricity unit rate, gas usage by the gas unit rate, then add the annual standing charges. This produces a like-for-like estimate before supplier-specific extras or discounts.

Monthly direct debits can mislead because suppliers may change them as they build or use credit, and because a monthly figure can hide different unit rates. Your annual kWh usage is the more useful starting point.

What you give up when you fix

Fixing a tariff buys price certainty for the agreed term. If the market price rises, that certainty can be valuable. If prices fall, a fixed customer may remain on a higher rate. You may also face an exit fee if you leave the fixed contract early; Ofgem specifically tells customers to check for an exit fee before switching.

A fix is therefore partly a risk-management decision. The question is not simply 'Will prices go up?' but 'What is the cost of certainty compared with staying exposed to a price-capped variable rate?'

When will the next price-cap changes be known?

Ofgem reviews the cap every three months. It says the level for 1 January to 31 March 2027 is scheduled to be announced on 25 November 2026, while the level for 1 April to 30 June 2027 is scheduled for 23 February 2027. You should not state what those future rates will be before Ofgem publishes them.

That matters when someone asks whether they should fix now because 'April prices' might be higher or lower. Before the figure is published, any exact April price is only a forecast. A responsible comparison can use the current cap and the fixed quote you actually have, while acknowledging the future variable rate is unknown.

Do not ignore time-of-use and smart tariffs

Some households may have options other than a simple single-rate fix or a standard variable tariff. Ofgem notes that multi-rate tariffs, such as Economy 7, use different unit rates at different times, and suppliers may offer cheaper periods or smart-meter-linked deals. If your usage is concentrated at certain times, a time-of-use tariff may change the comparison.

The right tariff therefore depends on your actual consumption pattern. Someone who can shift electricity use to cheaper periods may have a different best choice from someone whose demand is concentrated at peak times.

If the issue is affordability, not tariff shopping

If you are already struggling to pay your energy bills, switching to another tariff should not be the only plan. Ofgem says suppliers must help customers who tell them they cannot pay and may offer repayment arrangements or emergency credit in some circumstances. Citizens Advice and MoneyHelper can also help you understand your options.

A simple fix-or-variable checklist

Write down your annual electricity and gas kWh use.
Compare the fixed quote's unit rates and standing charges with your current regional cap rates.
Check the length of the fix and any exit fee.
Consider how comfortable you are with prices changing every three months on a default tariff.
Ignore rumours about future cap levels until Ofgem publishes the next official figure.

Illustrative annual cost using current Ofgem average capped rates

Worked example

Illustrative tariff comparison using current capped rates: A household uses 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas. Using Ofgem's average Direct Debit rates for 1 October-31 December 2026 gives a benchmark cost.

Electricity: (2,700 × £0.2632) + (365 × £0.5483) = £910.77 approximately.
Gas: (11,500 × £0.0797) + (365 × £0.2968) = £1,024.88 approximately.
Combined benchmark: £910.77 + £1,024.88 = £1,935.65 approximately.

An illustrative fixed quote of £1,850 on the same assumed usage would therefore be about £85.65 lower than this benchmark: £1,935.65 - £1,850 = £85.65. The real comparison must use your regional rates, actual usage and the fixed tariff's own terms. The point of the example is to compare like-for-like usage, not to predict the next cap.

Should I fix my energy tariff now?#

Compare the actual fixed quote with the current price-cap rates first. A fix can be worthwhile when the quoted unit rates are competitive and you value certainty, but you also need to check the contract length and any exit fee. The next price-cap level may move either way and should not be guessed.

Is a standard variable energy tariff safer than a fix?#

It is more flexible, but it leaves you exposed to Ofgem's price-cap changes. A fixed tariff gives more price certainty but can become poor value if market prices fall. 'Safer' therefore depends on whether you mean flexibility or protection from future rate changes.

What is the energy price cap from October 2026?#

For 1 October to 31 December 2026, Ofgem's cap is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit in England, Scotland and Wales. That is a typical-use benchmark; the cap applies to unit rates and standing charges, so actual bills vary with usage and region.

What are the current electricity and gas cap rates?#

For Direct Debit customers from 1 October to 31 December 2026, Ofgem's average rates are 26.32p per kWh for electricity and 7.97p per kWh for gas. Standing charges average 54.83p a day for electricity and 29.68p a day for gas, before applying your regional variations.

When will the April 2027 energy price cap be announced?#

Ofgem says the cap for 1 April to 30 June 2027 is scheduled to be announced on 23 February 2027. Before that announcement, any exact April price is only a forecast. Compare the fixed deal you actually have with known current rates rather than treating predictions as published figures.

Can I leave a fixed energy tariff early?#

You may be able to, but an exit fee can apply if you leave before the fixed term ends. Ofgem tells customers to check the existing contract for an exit fee before switching. Your supplier must also follow its rules for the applicable switching window and cancellation rights.

What if I cannot afford my energy bill?#

Tell the supplier rather than waiting for arrears to build. Ofgem says suppliers must help customers who say they cannot pay and may offer options such as repayment plans or emergency credit. MoneyHelper and Citizens Advice can help you work through wider debt and affordability problems.

Do smart-meter tariffs change the fix-or-variable decision?#

They can. Time-of-use and multi-rate tariffs price electricity differently during different periods, so a household that can shift usage may get a different result from a simple single-rate comparison. Check your actual usage pattern rather than assuming the cheapest headline unit rate is best for every home.

Keep reading

Next question →What happens when your energy supplier is taken over or fails?

Sources

Figures were checked against these sources before publication. If a rule changes, we update the page and show the new date.

General information, not personal financial advice. Rules depend on your circumstances; check the official source or speak to a regulated adviser before acting.